When does lithium carbonate go all the way down? Lithium hydroxide still languishing?
Recently, the price of lithium carbonate than before the sharp decline can be said to be calm, this week battery level lithium carbonate price transaction continued to maintain at 7. 8-8. Ten thousand yuan/ton, trading range than last month has a significant narrowing.
For the price of lithium carbonate in December, it is expected that, without the occurrence of such emergencies as the closure of a large positive electrode material factory, the price of lithium carbonate will remain stable on the whole, and there may be downside risks. If the price goes down, the decline will not be too large, and it is estimated to be around 3,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan/ton.
Since march this year, the price of lithium carbonate open past of heavy losses, according to a survey that huge losses are mainly from the important origin of qinghai salt lake lithium resources areas have a large number of inventory, in order to complete the production index, manufacturers cast a lot of goods to inventory behavior, as a result, the price of lithium carbonate serious losses, at the same time, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate drag on the price of lithium carbonate battery.
However, it is understood that the current qinghai region is affected by the weather, lithium is expected to reduce production by 10-15%, the scale of production reduction is not large, so the lithium carbonate price will not rise, at the same time, the enterprise has almost no inventory, and the production and sales indicators have been completed, there is no low price to complete the indicators to sell inventory.
At present, the price of lithium carbonate has been in the lower manufacturers' expected price range, but also in the upper range of tolerance. At the same time, the results of the now closely watched lithium ore negotiations will be announced in mid-december, when we will know the specific price of long and single lithium ore, which may boost or depress the afternoon market, but will not have much impact in the short term.
Meanwhile, according to the communication with upstream and downstream manufacturers, the price of lithium carbonate (industrial grade and battery grade) has remained stable in the last three weeks, and upstream and downstream manufacturers are in a good state of mind. According to insiders in the industry, the drastic price changes before had a great impact on the downstream purchasing mentality, and now the price remains stable, which has a positive effect on the market trading mentality.
For lithium hydroxide, which has been on a downward trend since mid-june, prices have also fallen recently, with battery grade lithium hydroxide at 11 last week. 5-12. 50,000 yuan/ton, in which the battery micro powder lithium hydroxide mainstream transaction price has reached 12. 30,000 yuan/ton, however, compared with industrial grade lithium hydroxide, its price is still high. Recently, the downstream demand for industrial-grade lithium hydroxide has been relatively weak. The frequency of purchasing once a month has been reduced to once every two months. At the same time, due to the price of industrial lithium hydroxide has been falling for some time, downstream manufacturers are also very cautious in buying and have no intention of stockpiling.
For lithium hydroxide prices in December, they are expected to fall slowly, by about rmb2,000 to rmb3,000 a tonne a month. Lithium hydroxide prices are mainly due to the release of upstream capacity and weak downstream demand.
According to statistics, the domestic lithium hydroxide new capacity in 2018 is about 3. 550,000 tons, of which the new capacity of ganfeng lithium and shandong ruifu lithium have both realized mass production. Domestic production of lithium hydroxide is expected to be about 5. 5% in 2018. About 70,000 tons, up 78 percent from last year. 1%. On the one hand, the upstream production capacity is released; on the other hand, in the downstream, the market demand for high nickel is always weak because the development of high nickel ternary is still to be seen. According to the survey of upstream manufacturers said, December orders are stable, there is no significant change. Overall, the gap between battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will narrow.