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The lithium battery sector may take a short-term hit

On January 9, the lithium battery plate slipped.


Up to the close, most of the leading enterprises are down more than 4%.


Behind the sudden plunge, and the previous day's market came out of the two about the new energy car subsidy scheme rumors. The two schemes in the rumor show that the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles is far beyond market expectations, which may bring negative impact to relevant enterprises.


Although the government has not confirmed the rumored plan, market participants generally believe that the subsidy for new energy vehicles has become a necessary decline, and the government has the intention to force the new energy industry chain.


However, when asked if the negative impact of the policy changes would be sustained, several buyers in the survey were more optimistic. Respondents believe that the decline of subsidies will have a short-term impact on the new energy sector as a whole, rather than a long-term impact.


After experiencing pullback, new energy plate may welcome layout opportunity again.


Subsidy slope rumor impact


On January 8th two rumours circulated about subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2019.


The first scheme in the rumor shows that from February this year, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be officially implemented. Among them, from February to June is a transitional period, the subsidy slope is 30%; From July 1, the subsidy will be reduced by 50%.


According to the first draft of the consultation draft, the total subsidy for plates in 2019 is about 30-35 billion yuan, while the subsidies in 2017-2018 are above 50 billion yuan. Although the draft opinion may not be the final plan, but the overall idea is to require the reduction of subsidy plate, industry average decline of 50% to 60%, significantly lower than the average market expectations of 40%.


The above two rumors quickly triggered a shock to the relevant plate. After the opening bell on January 9, lithium electric plate fell collectively, a number of lithium electric stocks fell as much as 7 percent or even more than 8 percent in the morning, some stocks intraday volatility.


Take forerunner intelligence as an example, the share price of this stock falls sharply after opening quotation in the morning, the drop is close to 9% at one time, but begin to pull strongly subsequently rise, be close to 11 o 'clock in the morning unexpectedly by green turn red; After a brief rally, however, shares turned lower again, down 4.18% by the close.


Plate by deep down to the red down again, may be big money pump and operation technique, behind this is often accompanied by trading sharply peatlands, if TuiPo dynamics is referred to as rumors, so short-term negative impact is certainly exist, this will directly lead to improvements in automobile unit price, so in the short term may lead to capital flight.


However, some institutions believe that from the overall situation of a number of individual stocks on January 9, the subsidy slope on the negative impact of the relevant plate is not too big. From the stock level, if according to the rumor version, the policy forces the industry chain to perfect


When asked whether the rumor of subsidy slope reduction policy will continue to impact relevant sectors for a long time, a number of respondents gave a negative opinion.


The two-year withdrawal of subsidies is already clear, but this year it will be more or less. To the enterprise, can cause some effect to management arrangement. But on a two-year time scale, the effect is small. Subsidy policy slope, to some extent, reflects the intention of the government to force the industrial chain.


Subsidy decline on the new energy sector as a whole is a short-term impact, will not be a long-term impact. The historical experience of the international market shows that enterprises do not rely on government subsidies to become bigger and stronger. Just like a healthy person, their growth must rely on their own hematopoietic system rather than the external blood transfusion system to support them to become a strong body.


The reduction of subsidies in the new energy vehicle industry will also be a certain direction, but the proportion of reduction may be adjusted every time, without affecting the development of new energy vehicles. This information is just a short-term fluctuation, which has some impact on the cash flow of enterprises in the short term. However, the proportion of subsidies in the cash flow is relatively small, and the impact time is limited. At present, tesla has made profits in the new energy automobile industry, and the public charging pile business has also started to make profits. Relevant data show that the development of this industry has entered its own commercial positive circulation system. New energy vehicle sector will be one of the focus of jinxin consumption upgrade in the future.


The negative impact of subsidy reduction policy has short-term impact. In the medium and long term, the direction of new energy vehicles is good, and the withdrawal of subsidies is only a matter of time. In the future, truly competitive enterprises will stand out in the market.


As for the buying opportunities brought by the pullback, both the buyer and the seller institutions interviewed generally believe that the policy should be considered after implementation.


The marginal impact of policy is a risk factor for the electrical equipment industry. At present, there is still uncertainty in the expectation of subsidy policy. The announcement time point, the slope of decline, whether there is a transition period and so on will have marginal impact on the industry. At present, investors are advised to wait for the layout opportunity after the policy is implemented. We judge that march and April 2019 will usher in a relatively good layout opportunities. Prior to that, there were gaming opportunities, such as last week's sharp rise in the external market and monetary policy cuts that are expected to fuel a near-term rebound in the sector.


This year is optimistic about the new energy car more people, I think there are opportunities after the adjustment. However, the short-term impact is still fermentation, for now or cautious first.


The continuity of the market price adjustment depends on the continuity of the negative information. The current shock index is an Overshooting rather than a directional change. Whether the future electrical plate may be restarted may be more due to the continuity of subsequent events. Logically, the pricing power of related equipment companies is relatively weak and the fluctuation is large. The change of short-term negative information is superimposed, which forms the fluctuation resonance and leads to the increase of fluctuation.

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