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Lithium iron carbonate will exit the new energy passenger car market?

In the previous article, "in 2018, the proportion of supporting batteries for new energy passenger cars will not rise, but will fall, and the two giants will share 70% of the market", we have seen that there is no shadow of ternary lithium battery in the field of new energy passenger cars in 2018. Recently, when analyzing the recommended model list for promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the "catalog"), China battery network xiaoxiao found that the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the passenger car market has been less than 5%. In line with the trend of high energy density linked to financial subsidies, many people cannot help wondering whether lithium iron phosphate will completely withdraw from the new energy passenger car market in 2019. Despite all the talk about lithium iron phosphate being safer and cheaper, the safety of ternary lithium batteries has also improved significantly, and costs have dropped by almost 10-20% every year, making lithium iron phosphate seem to have lost its luster in the passenger car market.


The car market in 2018 is "" really cold" ", with China's car production and sales falling by 4 percent year-on-year in 2018. Two percent and two percent. 8 percent, the first negative growth in 28 years. However, the new energy vehicle market is in full swing, production and sales record again. China will produce and sell 1.27 million new energy vehicles and 1.25 million new energy vehicles in 2018, data showed. 60,000 vehicles, up 59 percent year-on-year. 9% and 61. 7%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger cars both broke the million mark, with 1.07 million and 105 million respectively. 30,000, up 80 percent year-on-year. 5% and 82%. Meanwhile, the number of new energy passenger cars entering the catalog in 2018 is also growing rapidly, with 730 new energy passenger cars entering the catalog in 2018, up 80 percent from 404 in 2017. 69%. Driven by the high financial subsidy and market demand, China's new energy passenger vehicles have begun to develop into a fast lane and become the main force in the new energy vehicle market.




According to statistics, 730 new energy passenger cars in the new catalog will be produced by 81 vehicle manufacturers in 2018. Byd, the no. 1 company, has 73 new cars in the catalog, accounting for 10%. Dongfeng motor, zhejiang haoqing (geely holding), jac, JMC and chongqing changan followed. The first 10 car enterprises approved 332 models, accounting for 45. 48%; The top 20 car enterprises approved 493 models, accounting for 67. 53%.


Three battery into the catalogue of passenger cars mainstream configuration


From the perspective of the supporting battery types of new energy passenger vehicles in the catalogue, the proportion of ternary lithium battery is up to 92. 5%, has occupied the absolute dominant position, the share of lithium iron phosphate battery has been less than 5%. In February 2018, the ministry of industry and information technology, together with the ministry of finance, the ministry of science and technology and the national development and reform commission issued the fiscal subsidy policy for 2018 new energy vehicles. The subsidy policy is adjusted as follows: the energy density of the battery system of pure electric passenger vehicles is 105 (inclusive) -120wh/kg, and the model is 0. 6 times subsidy, 120-140wh/kg car model will be 1 times subsidy, 140-160wh/kg car model will be 1 times subsidy. 1 times subsidy, 160Wh/kg and above models press 1. Double the subsidy. In order to obtain more financial subsidies, the power batteries of the new models applied for in 2018 are mainly three-component lithium batteries with higher energy density, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are gradually transferred to new energy passenger cars and other fields.


The impact of fiscal subsidy policy adjustment in 2018 is also reflected in the number of power battery installations in 2018. Data from the chapter of power battery application shows that in 2018, the supporting power batteries of new energy vehicles are mainly ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, which together account for 97 percent of the market share of new energy vehicles. 18%. Among them, ternary battery load accounted for 58. 17 percent, up 13 percent from 2017; Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 39% of the total installed capacity, down 10% year-on-year. Ternary battery continues to grow in new energy passenger vehicle supporting, while lithium iron phosphate has retreated from the dominant position. As the threshold of financial subsidy will continue to be raised, on the other hand, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has reached the "bottleneck", and it is expected that the installed amount of lithium iron phosphate in new energy passenger vehicles will have a significant decline in 2019.




Power battery supporting to the advantage of enterprise concentration




From the perspective of power battery supporting enterprises, the 730 new energy passenger car power batteries in 2018 will be provided by 80 power battery enterprises. Among them, ningde times is far ahead in the number of supporting 142 models. Byd power battery supporting 73 new energy passenger cars followed, combined with the aforementioned byd 2018 has 73 new energy passenger cars into the catalog, it can be speculated that its power battery has not been applied to other brands of new energy passenger cars.


In November 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have already exceeded the million mark, and the industry of new energy vehicles in China has entered the stage of rapid growth and development from the initial stage. At the beginning of the development of new energy automobile industry, the government guided the development of China's new energy automobile industry by introducing new energy passenger cars, special vehicles and trucks in public transportation, urban logistics and other fields. Nowadays, new energy passenger cars have become the main force of the development of new energy automobile industry.


With the gradual decline of financial subsidies, the market will become the main driving force for the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Consumers' key demands for the long endurance, fast charging, high safety and low cost of new energy vehicles will become the direction for the technology research and development of vehicles and power battery enterprises. From the perspective of the existing lithium battery technology route system, the lithium iron phosphate battery whose energy density is close to the "ceiling" has little room to play in the field of new energy passenger vehicles, while the ternary lithium battery with higher energy density will continue to increase its market share in the short term. Will lithium iron phosphate bid farewell to the new energy passenger car market in 2019? That is hard to say, but a drop from almost 40% in 2018 to around 20% seems inevitable.

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