In the future, fuel cells will match the current international status of lithium batteries
At present, governments of all countries have formulated the timetable for the withdrawal of fuel oil vehicles, and major enterprises have planned the strategic goal of developing new energy vehicles. Under the situation of the increasingly exhausted global petrochemical resources and the increasingly intensified greenhouse effect, the trend of new energy replacing traditional energy is unstoppable! New energy vehicles have become the main task of reducing carbon emission and mitigating climate change.
So, in the major car companies have planned electrification goals, the future of new models, new platforms to use what kind of technology line becomes the key! National policies determine the choice of mainstream technology routes for enterprises in the future. The development of new energy vehicles in various countries started from the swing of the first stage before 2006 and focused on hydrogen fuel cells. From 2007 to 2011, the second stage was dominated by lithium batteries, with hybrid electric vehicles taking the lead.
So, in the process of continuous exploration, what is the mainstream technology line suitable for China's new energy vehicles in the future? How will pure electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles develop in the future?
At the all-in-one meeting of electric vehicles in 2019, ouyang minggao, vice chairman of the all-in-one meeting of electric vehicles, made a detailed analysis and outlook on the three technical routes.
In terms of pure electric vehicles, the energy density of batteries is constantly increasing, and the application of high nickel content also makes the thermal stability of batteries increasingly worse. In order to improve the safety of batteries, it is necessary to start from the development of new solid-state batteries. Solid-state batteries are expected to be commercially available on a large scale between 2025 and 2030.
In addition to batteries, increasing the battery load to increase the driving range is not the fundamental way out for electric cars. The mainstream technology route is to improve the energy efficiency and charging convenience of electric cars, so that electric cars will be recognized by more people. The convenience of charging depends on the establishment of charging system and the breakthrough of quick charging technology. Ouyang minggao believes that around 2025, pure electric vehicles will have a more cost-effective breakthrough. Based on the cost of the whole life cycle, the price of fuel vehicles and the cost of the whole life cycle will be calculated. Fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will be equal. In addition, the most stringent emission regulations will be implemented soon. We believe that around 2025, pure electric vehicles will achieve a great breakthrough in cost performance.
The entry of tesla into China is a huge shock and challenge to the Chinese market, but the market opening and technical competition bring about market optimization. Pure electric vehicles do not exit or shrink, but seize opportunities and face challenges.
China hybrid technology: features and advantages are still pure electric drive!
Hybrid technology circuit is more complex, in the international, Japan belongs to the hybrid technology more mature countries. However, Japanese hybrids are non-rechargeable, with Toyota, Honda and nissan leading the international trend in conventional hybrids.
The other type, which is widely promoted in China, belongs to plug-in hybrid power. Plug-in hybrid power is divided into two stages. In the power maintenance stage, it is a conventional hybrid power.
According to the characteristics of China's passenger cars, pure plug-in hybrid power can save more than 80% of the fuel for short-distance use in urban areas and high-speed and long-distance use. This is China's advantageous technical route, which is a bonus brought by the policy of pure electric driving mileage over 50 kilometers stipulated by the Chinese government. If the pure electric plug-in hybrid power is analyzed separately according to function and structure, there are actually nine types of hybrid power. Pure electric hybrid power can be connected in series, parallel or mixed. According to the Chinese definition of additive program, it is actually a series of pure electric plug-in hybrid power, which is a kind of pure electric plug-in hybrid power. He said China may be mainly parallel and series, mixed will not become the mainstream.
In the future, if the mainstream car companies want to do hybrid technology line of the car should be how to implement it? Ouyang minggao said that one is from the fuel car upgrade after the conversion of energy-saving car route, conventional hybrid to plug-in hybrid. The other is a hybrid route from pure electric vehicles to plug-in and pure plug-in hybrids.
The characteristics and advantages of hybrid technology with Chinese characteristics are still pure electric drive. Of course, pure electric drive including pure electric, but not equal to pure electric.
Fuel cells within 5-10 years to match the current international status of lithium batteries
Fuel cells are once again getting people's attention, mainly because of the difficulty of recycling power batteries brought about by the vigorous development of pure electric vehicles. In the long run, fuel cells are expected to be more efficient.
At present, the development of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in China has begun to commercialize, but the development of passenger vehicles is still facing technical bottlenecks and development costs. A trade-off between hydrogen and pure electric power is cost. At the fuel cell engine level, the main problems are membrane motors and air compressors; In terms of hydrogen energy technology, the energy density of current hydrogen storage technology is still not high. Liquefaction still needs to reduce energy consumption further. Especially in the SUV market in the north, fuel cell vehicles have a good competitive edge.
According to the development process of hydrogen fuel cell technology in China and the world, compared with pure electric vehicles, the industrialization process of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is about a decade later. In 2020, the fuel cell hybrid will mature, the commercial vehicle market, is expected to be in 5,000 to 10,000, the iconic model is the fuel cell vehicle. By 2025, the fuel cell technology will be mature, and the cumulative promotion will reach 500, 000 to 100, 000. The iconic model is the large SUV of fuel cell. In 2030, a new generation of hydrogen energy technology will make breakthroughs in hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation. Fuel cell technology will be promoted to 1 million vehicles in the field of transportation and energy.
It is expected that in the next 5-10 years, fuel cells will reach the international status of lithium ion batteries in China.