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Lithium battery rise has "lithium" five main line layout leading stocks

Although the A-share market continues to fluctuate, the lithium battery sector has continued to rise since the beginning of November, and many lithium battery concept stocks have strengthened against the market. The agency pointed out that the valuation of the lithium battery sector is 29.65 times, and the valuation is significantly lower than the industry median level of 47.53 times. The lithium battery sector is expected to usher in a valuation repair.

Demand for lithium batteries is steadily increasing

Since November, the trend of the lithium battery sector has been more dazzling, showing a certain temperature recovery characteristic and attracting the investigation of most investors, which has attracted more attention in the market.

The reason behind this is mainly due to the good news released by some countries, including the increase of new energy subsidies and the acceleration of the electrification of car companies in some overseas countries, and the release of relevant research and development results of lithium-ion battery technology. As we all know, although the current auto market is in the cold winter, the development of new energy vehicles is still the general trend. Power batteries are one of the core components of new energy vehicles, which have a high proportion of cost and have strong market competitiveness and market value. As the world's largest lithium-ion battery manufacturing country, with the popularity of new energy vehicles, the scale of related industries has also continued to expand.

From the perspective of China's lithium battery segmented applications, the growth of the traditional 3C digital market has gradually slowed down, with a compound growth rate of 6.05% over the past 5 years; the energy storage market has grown rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 31.57% over the past 5 years; power batteries Driven by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, the sector has become the segment with the strongest growth, with a compound growth rate of 66.87% over the past five years. Looking at the data, new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries have contributed to the revenue growth of the lithium battery market.

From the market perspective, in 2018, China's lithium-ion battery market output reached 102.00GWh, an increase of 26.71% year-on-year, and China's global output accounted for 54.03%, which was stimulated by the development of new energy vehicles (in 2018, China's new energy vehicle output reached 1.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.62%). In 2018, the power battery reached 65GWh, and the output increased by 46.07% year-on-year. It has become the largest segment of the segment and is currently the largest growth engine in the lithium-ion battery field. In addition, from January to September 2019, domestic new energy vehicle production was approximately 888,000 units, an increase of 20.9% year-on-year; the installed capacity of power batteries was approximately 42.31GWh, an increase of 47% year-on-year, and with the continuous penetration of lithium batteries in the energy storage market, It is estimated that by 2022, China's lithium battery energy storage output value may increase to 13.7 billion yuan.

Five main lines layout lithium battery plate

China has ranked first in the world for the production and sales of new energy vehicles for four consecutive years, with scale holdings accounting for 50% of the world's total. In terms of policies, since 2009, China has issued more than 60 new energy vehicle industry policies. The new energy subsidy policy formulated in the early days is a general policy and is intended to cultivate the new energy vehicle market.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 808,000 and 872,000, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% and 20.8%. The power battery may be affected by the implementation of the new policy on subsidies for new energy vehicles. In the third quarter, the installed capacity dropped sharply. According to the domestic new energy vehicle production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, sales in the third quarter dropped significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate in the first three quarters has fallen to 20%. However, according to the 13th Five-Year Plan, by 2020, the output of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 2 million, and the demand for power batteries is expected to exceed 100GWh, and the compound growth rate of the industry in the past two years will reach 33%.

Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the short-term pressure of new energy vehicle sales in China is expected to increase steadily in 2020. Since 2013, the overall valuation of the lithium battery sector is comparable to that of the GEM, and its valuation has continued to move downwards since June 2015. As of November 12, 19, the valuation of lithium battery and GEM was 29.65 times and 39.15 times, respectively. The current valuation is significantly lower than the median level of 47.53 times in 13 years. Based on the industry's development prospects, we maintain the rating of “Synchronous Market”. The 2020 proposal is centered on the following main line layout: first, the opening of new energy vehicles in Europe, which will benefit battery and upstream material companies; second, Tesla and its battery factory supporting companies; third, the global smartphone resumes growth and China's smartphone brand share Continuous improvement will benefit relevant targets; Fourth, the prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and other products will basically bottom, and the growth of downstream demand will benefit long-term benefits of related targets; Fifth, the increase in the concentration of industries such as power batteries will benefit long-term leaders in subdivided fields increase.

Market share of power battery companies is concentrated

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, in the first nine months of this year, China ’s power battery companies ’installed capacity rankings were: Ningde Times (300750), BYD (002594), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074), Lishen Battery, and Eternal Lithium (300014) , AVIC Lithium Power, Times SAIC, Funeng Technology, Carnai New Energy, Penghui Energy (300438).

Data show that in September, a total of 48 battery cell suppliers installed. Among them, the top 20 battery cell suppliers installed a total of 4.14GWh, accounting for 98.21%. The installed capacity of Ningde era was 2.34GWh, accounting for 55.52%, ranking first; BYD ranked second, with installed capacity of 507.58 MWh, and the market share was 12.05%, an increase from August. The battery cell suppliers ranked 3-20 ranked 30.64% of the total installed capacity, an increase from August. Installed above 100MWh include AVIC Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Xinwanda, Lishen Battery, etc.

Industry insiders said that the current over 50% share of Ningde Times has caused car companies to worry, and car companies are expected to work hard to find spare tires. At the same time, Japan and South Korea battery factories will also force the Chinese market, which will put pressure on the Ningde era. The Ningde Times also mentioned more than once that competition will intensify in the future, so it will accelerate its overall market seizure. Since September, Ningde Times has successively signed cooperation agreements with major foreign customers, and has received cooperation orders from Bosch Group, Daimler Bus, and Volkswagen (Latin America) Truck and Bus Company, the world's largest automotive technology suppliers.

As for the future of the second- and third-tier battery manufacturers, industry insiders believe that the second-tier battery factories are fragmenting, and the third-tier manufacturers may withdraw from the electric vehicle market. Data show that since this year, except January, the number of battery cell suppliers from February to September has decreased year-on-year. The decrease in the number of battery cell suppliers also indicates that the electric vehicle industry is in a severe situation, and the concentration and reshuffle of the industry is intensifying.

The highest revenue: BYD

Benefiting from the continuous promotion of national energy conservation and environmental protection policies, lithium batteries have gradually become new energy passenger cars as supporting subjects. However, with the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, the cost pressure is increasingly concentrated on the lithium ion battery in the midstream. The acceleration of licensing has made the industry pattern more centralized.

In terms of revenue, BYD's battery business has not yet been split, so it is not possible to separately calculate the revenue of its battery business. Thanks to the vehicle and electronics, photovoltaic and other businesses, BYD's receivables are higher than other peers. many.

From the perspective of revenue growth rate, Ningde Times topped the list with 71.7% revenue growth rate, followed by Yiwei Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, Xinwanda and Guoxuan High-tech. Jian Rui Wo Neng and * ST Lions "have not breathed yet." It is worth mentioning that they have not given up. Recently, * ST Lions announced that with the Sanmenxia Urban-Rural Integration Demonstration Zone Management Committee and the Sanmenxia Investment Group, Lions invested 2.5 billion yuan in the Sanmenxia Urban-Rural Integration Demonstration Zone to construct 5GWh high-end lithium battery production project reached a specific cooperation intention.

Highest net profit: Ningde Times

The 2019 third quarter report shows that 12 lithium-ion listed companies have higher revenues. In the first three quarters, only three of the 12 companies had net profits attributable to their mothers that exceeded 1 billion yuan, and 10 companies achieved profit. Two companies reported losses attributable to their mothers in the first three quarters, of which Ningde Times was 3.464 billion yuan. The company's profit won the championship, followed by BYD (1.574 billion yuan), Jianrui Woengeng is still in a disadvantaged position, with a loss of 2.607 billion yuan.

In the first three quarters, there were nine listed companies that achieved profitable growth, and three had negative net profit growth. The industry's overall net profit growth rate was not ideal. Among them, the most obvious change in earnings growth is Eternal Lithium Energy, which increased by 205.94% in the first three quarters of 2019 over the same period in 2018.

On October 25, Eternal Lithium Energy disclosed the third quarter report for 2019. Eternal Lithium Energy achieved operating revenue of 4.577 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 52.12%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.159 billion yuan, an increase of 205.994 %; Net cash flow from operating activities was 849 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 594.37%.

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